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Oliver Buchannon
Tyler Webber
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Markets

Feb 14, 2026

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1 min read

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Markets

Term Structure Overpricing and Battlefield Reality Check

Tyler Webber
Tyler Webber
Democrats Win The House 2026

Feb 7, 2026

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1 min read

Democrats Win The House 2026

Bad Bunny's Super Bowl LX Performance To Help Pad The Dems' Midterm Lead

Tyler Webber
Tyler Webber
Keir Starmer Leaves Office in 2026: A Prediction Market Analysis

Jan 25, 2026

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1 min read

Keir Starmer Leaves Office in 2026: A Prediction Market Analysis

Kalshi prices Starmer's exit before 2027 at 48%, implying near-even odds of survival. William Hill (UK bookmaker) at 60% and pathway analysis suggest fair value lies in the 58-65% range

Tyler Webber
Tyler Webber
Geopolitical Markets Shaping 2026

Dec 28, 2025

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1 min read

Geopolitical Markets Shaping 2026

A potential end to Europe's largest land war since 1945, a Western Hemisphere military flashpoint, and the possible end of a 36-year theocratic reign in the Middle East. Each represents a distinct type of uncertainty — diplomatic breakthrough versus stalemate, escalation versus restraint, and regime continuity versus rupture

Tyler Webber
Tyler Webber
SCOTUS Tariff Case: Is Trump Undervalued at 26%?

Dec 22, 2025

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1 min read

SCOTUS Tariff Case: Is Trump Undervalued at 26%?

Kalshi prices Trump winning the SCOTUS tariff case at 26%, but pre-argument expert consensus was ~50/50, and even post-argument analysts put fair odds at ~30–40%.

Tyler Webber
Tyler Webber

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