Jan 24, 2026
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1 min read
On January 13, we entered a series of NO positions on Polymarket's "US strikes Iran by...?" market, spanning January 13 through January 18.
Jan 10, 2026
How Even "Vibes-Driven" Markets Leave a Quantitative Trail
Dec 27, 2025
Before resolution, prices move continuously—drifting, adjusting, absorbing information—until they eventually collapse into a single, objective truth.
Dec 20, 2025
11 min read
An exploration of how illiquidity, complexity, and neglect combine to create opportunity in prediction markets. A case study on Kalshi sneaker contracts and the process-driven approach to identifying mispriced markets.
