Archive

Gold hits $4,500, stocks hit records, and the airport hit max capacity. Inside: Your Christmas Eve market wrap

With just 8 days remaining, this is almost certainly a dead market. The Dec 31 market isn't interesting because it might resolve Yes. It's interesting because it reveals exactly why the June 30, 2026 market at 77% is mispriced.

The world is currently operating on a mix of high-stakes geopolitical drama and financial absurdity. While gold prices have rocketed to record highs of over $4,500—Wall Street is busy rallying on AI stocks again.

Kalshi prices Trump winning the SCOTUS tariff case at 26%, but pre-argument expert consensus was ~50/50, and even post-argument analysts put fair odds at ~30–40%.