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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Records, then a pause. All three major U.S. indexes closed at fresh all-time highs Tuesday — the S&P 500 finished above 7,600 for the first time — but Dow futures slipped early Wednesday as the rally took a breather. The S&P is up ~16% across April and May, a two-month run matched only four times in history.
🗳️ Politics
Trump's primary streak snaps. In Iowa's GOP governor primary, Rep. Randy Feenstra conceded to businessman Zach Lahn despite Trump's late endorsement — the first time a Trump-backed gubernatorial/House/Senate candidate has lost a midterm primary.
🌍 Geopolitics
U.S.–Iran front and center. The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict continues to reshape the region. Iran is moving to institutionalize control over the Strait of Hormuz via a new maritime toll authority, while Gulf states invest in bypass pipelines.
Diplomatic openings. A prospective U.S.–Iran deal and parallel Lebanon–Israel talks are being framed as a possible path to a new regional security order. PM Netanyahu sits for a CNBC interview at 10 AM ET amid the tensions.
Pro Basketball Finals: NY vs San Antonio - San Antonio 63% / New York 37%
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Karen Bass 75%
California Governor winner? Xavier Becerra 77%
Macro Signal
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Recession
21%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
1.7
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
42%
D-House, D-Senate
|
CPI Forecast
3%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
22%
Dec 2026
|
Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 6.3%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
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$114.74
+$6.81
|
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▲ 3.3%
|
META
Meta Platforms Inc.
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$617.63
+$20.00
|
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▲ 3.3%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$538.85
+$17.31
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Top Losers
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▼ 4.2%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$234.20
-$10.38
|
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▼ 3.4%
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PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$43.00
-$1.53
|
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▼ 3.4%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$193.98
-$6.86
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
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