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Where the news meets the numbers. Prediction market data, research and whale trades delivered 5 days a week.

Latest editions

Social Media Threats, Sinking Tech Stocks, and a 31% Strike Risk

Feb 18, 2026

Social Media Threats, Sinking Tech Stocks, and a 31% Strike Risk

Why Wall Street is sweating AI margins while prediction markets go vertical on the US-Iran diplomatic chess match.

Geneva is double-booked, and the GOP is slipping

Feb 17, 2026

Geneva is double-booked, and the GOP is slipping

95% Chance Washington Stays Closed

Feb 16, 2026

95% Chance Washington Stays Closed

95% Chance Washington Stays Closed

Feb 16, 2026

95% Chance Washington Stays Closed

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Markets

Feb 14, 2026

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Markets

Rates are boring. The rest is messy.

Feb 13, 2026

Rates are boring. The rest is messy.

Vintage Power, Modern Gridlock

Feb 12, 2026

Vintage Power, Modern Gridlock

Recent Posts

Feb 11, 2026

The Jobs Were Never There

BLS rewrites history, Anthropic corners the market (76%), and the "soft landing" hits an air pocket.

The Jobs Were Never There

Feb 10, 2026

15% GDP Dreams & 22 Billion EV Nightmares

Trump eyes "Warsh speed" growth, Stellantis hits a wall, and Iran strike odds climb to 41%.

15% GDP Dreams & 22 Billion EV Nightmares

Feb 9, 2026

50,000 Points, 13 Points, and 63 Cents

The math behind the Dow, the Seahawks, and the Norway surge.

50,000 Points, 13 Points, and 63 Cents

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