| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
Happy New Year! Once you are done nursing your hangover and cleaning up the confetti, its time you start researching 2026's big events:
1. Control of the U.S. Senate (2026 Midterms) While the House is a chaotic brawl, the Senate is the whale trade. The GOP is defending a difficult map, and traders are heavily scrutinizing the "Generic Ballot" spreads. The alpha here isn't just on who wins, but the margins—contracts on key swing states (think Georgia or Michigan) are essentially functioning as proxies for the "Trump Fatigue" index. If the "Democratic Control" shares tick up past 45 cents by spring, expect a volatility spike across the entire legislative board.
2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Target (Dec 2026) The "Soft Landing" trade is crowded, but the prediction markets are pricing in a lingering skepticism. Traders are currently split between "3.00-3.25%" and "Higher for Longer," treating Powell’s guidance with the same trust reserved for a gas station sushi expiration date. The real liquidity is flowing into the "Recession in 2026" binary contracts; right now, the market is pricing in resilience, but one hot CPI print could trigger a massive sell-off in optimism.
3. 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner Forget the NASDAQ; the summer’s liquidity event is in North America. The "USA to Win" contract is the ultimate patriotic trap bet (overpriced and purely emotional), while the heavy volume is settling on France and Brazil as the blue-chip holds. For the sophisticated degenerate, the "Host City Infrastructure Failure" prop bets offers a dark-horse hedging opportunity against the sheer scale of the event.
From The Research Desk
Executive Summary The Colombia 2026 presidential race enters the new year as a dead heat. On Polymarket, Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro are now tied at 37% each, with Cepeda dropping 6 points over the past week while de la Espriella ...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 78.0%
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Will SZA release a new song in 2025? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 50.0%
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Will Tom Brady be on New Years Rockin Eve? (Yes 0%0
24h Price Movement
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▲ 30.0%
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Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? (Yes 75%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 20.0%
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Will any be charged over daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? (Yes 21%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 3.0%
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Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity's Last Exam by January 31? (Yes 36%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 0.0%
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NFLX
Netflix Inc.
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$93.76
+$0.02
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▲ 0.2%
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BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway
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$502.65
+$1.06
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▲ 0.3%
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
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$313.00
+$0.85
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Top Losers
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▼ 1.2%
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PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$58.38
-$0.72
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▼ 1.2%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$194.91
-$2.30
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▼ 1.1%
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MA
Mastercard Inc.
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$570.88
-$6.54
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.