The world is currently operating on a mix of high-stakes geopolitical drama and financial absurdity. While gold prices have rocketed to record highs of over $4,500—Wall Street is busy rallying on AI stocks again.

Kalshi prices Trump winning the SCOTUS tariff case at 26%, but pre-argument expert consensus was ~50/50, and even post-argument analysts put fair odds at ~30–40%.

An exploration of how illiquidity, complexity, and neglect combine to create opportunity in prediction markets. A case study on Kalshi sneaker contracts and the process-driven approach to identifying mispriced markets.