| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
The world is currently running on a mix of geopolitical adrenaline and algorithmic chaos. President Trump just cut a deal with India to slash tariffs in exchange for a ban on Russian oil, while Elon Musk had a busy Tuesday: French police raided X’s Paris headquarters just as rumors swirled about him merging SpaceX and xAI into a $1.25 trillion behemoth.
On the financial front, Wall Street received a harsh lesson in "disruption" as Anthropic’s new AI legal tool sent shares of legacy publishers like Relx and Pearson tumbling, proving that not even the boring industries are safe from the bots.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
46%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
19%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
The Puzzle Polymarket prices US acquisition of part of Greenland in 2026 at 20%. Kalshi prices US control of any part of Greenland at 46% before January 2029. Kalshi prices Trump taking back the Panama Canal at 35%. Conventional geopolitical analysis...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▼ 68.0%
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Will Artemis II launch by February 28? (Yes 2%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 28.0%
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Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? (Yes 71%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 26.0%
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Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? (Yes 70%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 16.0%
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Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31? ( Yes 12%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 14.0%
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Will Giannis be traded to the Miami Heat? (Yes 22%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 2.6%
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HD
The Home Depot
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$387.83
+$9.71
|
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▲ 2.3%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$49.95
+$1.14
|
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▲ 2.2%
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JPM
JPMorgan Chase
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$314.86
+$6.72
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Top Losers
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▼ 18.1%
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PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$42.85
-$9.48
|
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▼ 6.2%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$197.68
-$13.13
|
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▼ 5.8%
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ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$276.41
-$16.97
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
| #1 |
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #4 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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The Kalshi market has aggressively repriced the government shutdown, driving the consensus forecast down to 4.1 days on substantial volume of over $17.6 million. With the contract for a shutdown exceeding four days trading at just 14 cents, the market has effectively discounted the possibility of a prolonged shutdown. This signals a high-conviction that the political gridlock is temporary, with capital flows betting decisively on a resolution by tomorrow morning. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.