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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
The Seattle Seahawks claimed their second Lombardi Trophy on Sunday with a decisive 29–13 win over the New England Patriots, marked by a dominant "Dark Side Defense" and an energetic halftime show by Bad Bunny and Lady Gaga.
While football fans celebrated in Santa Clara, the financial sector hit a historic milestone as the Dow Jones Industrial Average officially breached the 50,000-point mark for the first time. However, this record high comes amid significant uncertainty; the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has investors bracing for a potential policy pivot, while Bitcoin remains volatile below $70,000 as gold surges past $5,000.
Between Lindsey Vonn’s injury-forced exit from the Winter Olympics and the ongoing leadership exodus in major media, the weekend served as a reminder that even record-breaking growth in the markets can’t quite mask the instability elsewhere.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
46%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
20%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive Summary Position. HOLD (market is fairly priced to slightly rich) Fair Value. 78–85% Positions. - Polymarket 83% → top of fair value (HOLD) - Kalshi 76% → Edge of 0–7 points (BUY YES) Key Date. Election Day (November 3, 2026) --- The Market...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 39.0%
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UK Cabinet Minister resigns in February? (Yes 69%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 31.0%
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Will Global temperatures increase by more than 1.24 degrees Celcius in February 2026? (Yes 30%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 26.0%
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Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Month? (Yes 64%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 21.0%
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Starmer out by February 28, 2026? (Yes 33%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 29.0%
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Will Chatgpt be out as the #1 Free app in the App store by February 8? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 9.9%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$156.95
+$14.13
|
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▲ 3.5%
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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
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$191.85
+$6.44
|
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▲ 2.5%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$213.64
+$5.20
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Top Losers
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▼ 2.2%
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MA
Mastercard Inc.
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$536.63
-$12.11
|
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▼ 2.0%
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NFLX
Netflix Inc.
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$80.54
-$1.66
|
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▼ 1.6%
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AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
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$206.92
-$3.40
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Finance
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
Market of the Day
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Headlines Driving the Medal Market Norwegian Nordic Dominance: Norway currently leads the official gold count following Johannes Høsflot Klæbo’s victory in the men's skiathlon, marking his sixth career Olympic gold. Traders are heavily backing Norway due to their deep rosters in Biathlon and Cross-Country events, which offer multiple gold opportunities that few other nations can match. +1 The Vonn Heartbreak: Team USA’s gold medal projections took a significant hit after Lindsey Vonn’s highly anticipated comeback ended in a major crash during Sunday’s downhill event. Despite competing on a torn ACL, Vonn suffered a broken leg in the accident, removing a key potential gold from the American tally. Specialist Hopes vs. Volume: While the United States secured a gold in the figure skating team event, market confidence remains at 25% as traders question if individual stars like "God of the Quad" Ilia Malinin can overcome Norway's sheer volume of Nordic wins. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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