| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
In a geopolitical plot twist that reads like The Art of the Deal, global markets surged with relief after President Trump holstered his threatened tariffs on Europe, swapping trade war fears for a "framework of a future deal" to acquire Greenland. While the Nasdaq and European indices rallied on the news that the U.S. won't be taxing its allies into oblivion just yet, the "concept of a deal"—brokered with NATO chief Mark Rutte in Davos—remains as opaque as a blizzard, with Trump insisting on "ownership" of the territory while graciously ruling out a military invasion. As investors celebrated the reprieve and Intel shares jumped, the only ones perhaps not cheering are the geography teachers, as the President repeatedly confused his new real estate target with Iceland during the victory lap.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
47%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
18%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
Traders predicting Kalshi's "Gas prices in the US this month?" contract are pricing in volatility that doesn't match what actually happens in late January. The contract resolves based on AAA's national average gas price on January 31, 2026 at 10:00am...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 72.0%
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Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 19.0%
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Will Russia join the board of peace? (Yes 53%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 38.0%
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Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon? (Yes 48%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 34.0%
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Will Proctor & Gamble beat quarterly earnings? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 6.0%
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Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? (Yes 33%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 3.2%
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META
Meta Platforms Inc.
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$632.58
+$19.62
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▲ 2.3%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$177.95
+$4.07
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▲ 2.3%
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PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$57.18
+$1.29
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Top Losers
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▼ 1.5%
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NFLX
Netflix Inc.
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$84.07
-$1.29
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▼ 1.3%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$53.54
-$0.71
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▼ 0.9%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$118.34
-$1.02
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #5 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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"How Much Snow will Washington DC get this weekend" market on Polymarket --
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Full Analytics Dashboard
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.