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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
If you thought the US Government shutdown over DHS reforms was the weekend’s biggest mess, you clearly haven’t looked at Amazon’s stock chart. While Congress spent the weekend deadlocked on immigration and “voter ID” battles, the tech sector continued its own slump, proving that even a $200 billion AI gambling addiction can’t buy a green candle.
Meanwhile, Iran and the US are awkwardly flirting with nuclear talks in Geneva, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio spent the weekend at the Munich Security Conference trying to convince Europe that "America First" doesn't mean "America Alone."
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
|
Midterms
47%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
19%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive Summary Position. BUY NO on ceasefire by June 30 at 24%. BUY NO on ceasefire by Dec 31 at 43%, lower conviction. - Ceasefire by June 30: market 24%, fair value 16-20%, edge +4-8pp. Five independent signals converge on overpricing: decomposi...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▼ 37.0%
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Will the United States win the second most Gold medals in the Winter Olympics? (Yes 46%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 31.0%
|
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026? (Yes 91%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 27.0%
|
Will Elon Musk's Net worth be at least $700b on February 28? (Yes 41%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 26.0%
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Will there be at least 1,150 measels cases in the US by February 28, 2026? (Yes 67%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 17.0%
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Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? (Yes 36%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 3.1%
|
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$40.29
+$1.21
|
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▲ 3.0%
|
DIS
Walt Disney Company
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$105.45
+$3.07
|
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▲ 2.5%
|
CSCO
Cisco Systems
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$76.85
+$1.85
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Top Losers
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▼ 3.1%
|
V
Visa Inc.
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$314.08
-$10.10
|
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▼ 2.3%
|
AAPL
Apple Inc.
|
$255.78
-$5.95
|
|
▼ 2.2%
|
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
|
$182.81
-$4.13
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #4 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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Congress has left town: Both the House and Senate are in recess until February 23, meaning no deal is imminent.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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