| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Fed Decision Day — Rates Expected Unchanged: The March FOMC meeting concludes today, with the market pricing a near-certain hold at current rates (Kalshi: 99%). Fed Chair Powell's press conference this afternoon will be the main event, with investors watching the new "dot plot" projections. Powell's term ends May 15; Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as his replacement.
🗳️ Politics
SAVE America Act Hits Senate Floor: The Senate voted to begin debate on the SAVE America Act, kicking off what's expected to be a drawn-out floor fight. The bill lacks the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster but Republicans are pressing it under pressure from President Trump.
Partial Government Shutdown Continues: A partial shutdown remains in effect as negotiations over DHS funding stall. Administration officials say they are working toward a
compromise with Democrats.
🌍 Geopolitics
U.S.-Israel War on Iran — Day 19: The conflict has entered its 19th day. Iran launched retaliatory barrages targeting Israel and Gulf neighbors after Israeli strikes killed IRGC Basij chief Gholam Reza Soleimani, Supreme National Security Council head Ali Larijani, and reportedly intelligence minister Esmaeil Khatib. The Iranian death toll has surpassed 1,300; the U.S. has lost 13 service members.
Fed decision in March? — Fed maintains rate - 99% YES
Illinois Dem Senate nominee? — Juliana Stratton - 99% YES
More tech layoffs in 2026 than 2025? — 86% YES
Gas prices in US above $4.20 this month? — 63% YES
Macro Signal
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Recession
31%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
|
CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
20%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive summary | | | |---|---| | Primary position | BUY NO at 31.5% — Mar 31 contract | | Secondary position | BUY NO at 20.0% — Mar 14 contract | | Tertiary position | BUY NO at 58.5% — Dec 31 contract | | No trade | Mar 7 contract (e...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 20.0%
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Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? (Yes 44%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 17.0%
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Will South Korea's Unemployment Rate decrease between January and February 2026? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 17.0%
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Will Cristian Sanabria win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election? (Yes 48%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 14.0%
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Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? (Yes 64%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 12.0%
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Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? (Yes 19%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.6%
|
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
|
$199.47
+$3.16
|
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▲ 1.1%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
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$44.56
+$0.50
|
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▲ 0.7%
|
CSCO
Cisco Systems
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$79.84
+$0.57
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Top Losers
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▼ 1.8%
|
PG
Procter & Gamble
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$148.80
-$2.68
|
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▼ 1.7%
|
PFE
Pfizer Inc.
|
$26.98
-$0.47
|
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▼ 1.3%
|
WMT
Walmart Inc.
|
$123.40
-$1.68
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #5 |
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.