| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
S&P 500 pulls back from record highs. After closing at record levels Monday, the S&P 500 fell 0.75% to 7,120, the Nasdaq dropped 1.38% to 24,544, and the Dow slipped 0.04% to 49,147 in early Tuesday trading. The pullback was driven by AI infrastructure concerns and rising oil prices.
🗳️ Politics
Government shutdown grinds on. The federal government shutdown, which began February 7, continues with DHS funding still unresolved. Congress is working to pass a funding bill, with Kalshi markets pricing a resolution before May 15 at ~1.9%.
🌍 Geopolitics
Iran war diplomacy stalls again. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which would have deferred nuclear program negotiations. The strait remains effectively closed, roiling global energy markets. Pakistan is positioning itself to host a second round of US-Iran peace talks.
Gov't shutdown ≥100 days - 2.0% Yes
Macro Signal
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Recession
25%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
0%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
Christine Drazan is at 76% on Kalshi to win the Republican nomination. Ed Diehl is at 18%. Chris Dudley is at 10%. The chart tells a clean story: Drazan has been leading since the market opened, Diehl had a brief surge in January that faded, and Dudl...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 59.0%
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Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 58.0%
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Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? (Yes 87%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 36.0%
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Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? (Yes 14%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 32.0%
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Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? (Yes 43%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 28.0%
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Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? (Yes 67%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.8%
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MA
Mastercard Inc.
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$515.35
+$8.92
|
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▲ 1.7%
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ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$243.45
+$4.14
|
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▲ 1.7%
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PG
Procter & Gamble
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$150.86
+$2.46
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Top Losers
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▼ 4.6%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$319.22
-$15.41
|
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▼ 4.0%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$81.57
-$3.42
|
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▼ 3.9%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$166.27
-$6.69
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.