| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
US futures slide as Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade. S&P 500 poised to drop ~0.6% at the open after the President ordered a naval blockade of Iranian port traffic following failed weekend peace talks. Risk-off sentiment is spreading globally.
🗳️ Politics
Trump orders Strait of Hormuz blockade effective today. US Central Command announced it will enforce a blockade against vessels of all nations entering or exiting Iranian ports starting at 10:00 AM ET, after 21 hours of US-Iran negotiations broke down in Pakistan over the weekend.
🌍 Geopolitics
US-Iran peace talks collapse after 21-hour marathon. Negotiations in Pakistan ended without agreement, prompting the US to escalate with a full naval blockade of Iran's ports. Iran's military called the blockade "an illegal act amounting to piracy."
Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by April 30 ~11% YES
Democrats win Senate in 2026 ~50% YES
Macro Signal
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Recession
31%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
0%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Iowa's primary is June 2. The general election is November 3. --- THE KALSHI BOARD: FEENSTRA IS THE FAVORITE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER HE SHOULD BE. Kim Reynolds is retiring. Five Republicans want to replace her. Here's where the money sits: !Iowa Rep...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 81.0%
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Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? (Yes 99%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 70.0%
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Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026? (Yes 99%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 68.0%
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Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? (Yes 20%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 62.0%
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Will "House Tour" get between 13 and 14 million views in the first week? (Yes 0%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 5.4%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$164.03
+$8.41
|
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▲ 2.4%
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AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
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$245.67
+$5.78
|
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▲ 2.3%
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META
Meta Platforms Inc.
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$649.16
+$14.63
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Top Losers
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▼ 2.0%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$63.90
-$1.28
|
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▼ 0.9%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$123.43
-$1.14
|
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▼ 0.8%
|
CSCO
Cisco Systems
|
$81.68
-$0.67
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Finance
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.