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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
It’s a Monday where the macroeconomic backdrop involves the President of the United States suing his own bankers for "debanking" him, while simultaneously denying he ever offered Jamie Dimon a job at the Fed. As Wall Street digests that legal drama, commodities traders are having a field day: Gold and Silver have smashed record highs ($4,666 and $94 respectively), though Bank of America is already warning that the metal trade is looking frothy.
But the real volatility is scheduled for tonight in Miami Gardens, where the undefeated #1 Indiana Hoosiers face #10 Miami for the National Championship. The Hoosiers are 8.5-point favorites, but with the game being played at Miami's literal home stadium, the "neutral site" concept is currently trading at a steep discount. If you missed the entry on silver, the "home underdog" might be the only rational trade left on the board
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
1.9
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
48%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
18%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Iran Supreme Leader Transition Market Gaps Amid Historic Unrest January 12, 2026 --- Positions | Market | Platform | Current Price | Fair Value | Recommendation | |--------|----------|---------------|------------|----------------| | Khamenei out by J...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 26.0%
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Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? (Yes 77%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 15.0%
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Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead underwriter in SpaceX's initial public offering? (Yes 74%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 15.0%
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Will Cardi B perform during Super Bowl LX halftime Show? (Yes 63%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 12.0%
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Will the US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? (Yes 50%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 9.0%
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Will there be another US government Shutdown by January 31? (Yes 19%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.7%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$231.83
+$3.91
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▲ 1.0%
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JPM
JPMorgan Chase
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$312.47
+$3.21
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▲ 0.7%
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MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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$459.86
+$3.20
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Top Losers
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▼ 2.8%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$46.96
-$1.36
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▼ 2.7%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$227.11
-$6.42
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▼ 2.6%
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ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$296.12
-$7.97
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Tech/Culture
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #4 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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The most compelling storyline buried in these odds is the total disrespect for "home-field advantage" in the face of destiny. It is rare enough for a team like Indiana—historically a "basketball school"—to reach the National Championship, but for them to enter Miami’s home stadium as a decisive 74% favorite suggests the public believes their undefeated season is no fluke. The market is effectively saying that Indiana’s momentum is a stronger force than Miami’s home crowd, treating the Hurricanes not as hosts defending their turf, but as the final obstacle in a perfect, miracle run that defies decades of college football logic. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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