| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
Wall Street seems officially allergic to gravity this morning, with the Dow smashing through 49,000 and the S&P 500 posting fresh all-time highs, fueled by little more than "vibes" and relentless AI optimism.
In the boardroom, Warner Bros. Discovery continues to play hard to get, swiping left on Paramount’s sweetened $108 billion hostile bid despite Larry Ellison personally backing it with his Oracle fortune—apparently, even $40 billion in personal guarantees isn't enough to buy HBO these days.
Over at CES, Nvidia unveiled new chips that let cars "reason", while Lego debuted "Smart Bricks," ensuring the most painful toy on earth is now also digitally connected. Finally, credit bureau stocks like Equifax and FICO plummeted after FHFA Director Bill Pulte roasted their pricing on X.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
50%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.6%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
16%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
The Trade That Broke the Internet Someone just made the most controversial trade in prediction market history. An anonymous Polymarket user placed approximately $30,000 on contracts predicting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 36.0%
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Celonis IPO before 2027? (Yes 49%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 27.0%
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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? (Yes 48%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 23.0%
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Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? (Yes 53%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 17.0%
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Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? (Yes 49%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 13.0%
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US strike on Nigeria by January 31, 2026? (Yes 25%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 4.5%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$41.84
+$1.80
|
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▲ 2.0%
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
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$320.63
+$6.29
|
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▲ 1.5%
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HD
The Home Depot
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$354.56
+$5.27
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Top Losers
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▼ 2.7%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$208.46
-$5.89
|
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▼ 1.8%
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JPM
JPMorgan Chase
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$328.65
-$5.96
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▼ 1.3%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$112.84
-$1.50
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Tech/Culture
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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The implied probability of a U.S. acquisition of Greenland has doubled from 7% to 14% in the last 24 hours. This sharp repricing is not due to random speculation, but rather a reaction to a shift in official U.S. policy and the immediate international fallout. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.