| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
As 2025 stumbles toward the exit, the world is offering a masterclass in cognitive dissonance. President Trump insists peace in Ukraine is "closer than ever" while Russia and China run live-fire drills, yet the S&P 500 is flirting with 6,900 and SoftBank is dumping $4 billion into AI, proving that even looming global conflict can’t dampen a good tech narrative. Domestically, the spotlight has shifted to Minnesota, where a viral tour of allegedly empty daycares (including the unfortunately named "Quality Learing Center") has triggered a federal door-knocking campaign. While state officials claim the kids were just... somewhere else, the FBI and ICE are investigating if $100M in taxpayer cash is ghost-funding phantom toddlers—a sequel to the "Feeding Our Future" saga that nobody asked for.
From The Research Desk
Binary Contracts, Continuous Beliefs Prediction markets look binary. Yes or no. Above or below. Happens or doesn't. But that's just a contract wrapper. Before resolution, prices move continuously—drifting, adjusting, absorbing information—until they ...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 79.0%
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U.S. anti-cartel strike on foreign soil by December 31? (Yes 99%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 61.0%
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Trump imposes Tariff on semiconductors by December 31? (Yes 3%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 20.0%
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Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? (Yes 63%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 14.0%
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Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? (Yes 35%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 12.0%
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Will Bad Bunny win album of year at the 68th annual Grammy Awards? (Yes 58%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.3%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$36.68
+$0.48
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▲ 0.7%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$112.53
+$0.79
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▲ 0.6%
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DIS
Walt Disney Company
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$114.19
+$0.63
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Top Losers
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▼ 3.3%
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TSLA
Tesla Inc.
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$459.64
-$15.55
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▼ 1.3%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$195.38
-$2.61
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▼ 1.3%
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JPM
JPMorgan Chase
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$323.75
-$4.16
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Finance
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #4 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.