| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Markets Stabilize After Brutal Sell-Off — U.S. stocks are attempting a modest recovery Friday after a brutal Thursday where all three major indexes hit their lowest levels of 2026. The Dow Jones fell 740 points the day before but is bouncing ~0.9% today. The S&P 500 is still on pace for its first three-week losing streak in about a year.
🗳️ Politics
Trump on Iran War: "More of the Same" — Asked what the U.S. needs to do to end the conflict, President Trump said "more of the same," while also claiming there's "practically nothing left to target in Iran." The war has now entered its 14th day with no clear off-ramp in sight.
Government Shutdown Continues — Federal workers are beginning to miss paychecks. One worker, Anthony Riley, has already missed a full paycheck and faces eviction. Kalshi traders give a 52% probability that the shutdown lasts at least 55 days.
🌍 Geopolitics
US-Israel-Iran War, Day 14 — Israel launched a new "extensive wave" of strikes on Tehran and issued evacuation orders for Beirut. Iran fired fresh waves of missiles at Israel, while Hezbollah launched simultaneous attacks from southern Lebanon. The IEA called this "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."
🛢️ Gas prices exceed $4/gallon in March, 60% YES
🏛️ Government shutdown lasts 55+ days, 52% YES
🏦 Fed holds rates at March meeting, 98.4% YES
🏀 #1 seed wins March Madness, 74% YES
Macro Signal
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Recession
34%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.4%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
18%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive summary | | | |---|---| | Primary position | BUY NO at 31.5% — Mar 31 contract | | Secondary position | BUY NO at 20.0% — Mar 14 contract | | Tertiary position | BUY NO at 58.5% — Dec 31 contract | | No trade | Mar 7 contract (e...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 26.0%
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Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? (Yes 49%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 16.0%
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GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? (Yes 84%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 15.0%
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Will Alexis Mac Allister record the most Player of the Match awards during the 2025 UEFA Champions League? (Yes 2%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 13.0%
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Will Auxerre finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025-26 standings? (Yes 1%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 12.0%
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Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat? (Yes 36%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.8%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
|
$46.08
+$0.83
|
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▲ 1.5%
|
CSCO
Cisco Systems
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$78.91
+$1.17
|
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▲ 1.0%
|
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
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$95.26
+$0.95
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Top Losers
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▼ 6.6%
|
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
|
$251.93
-$17.85
|
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▼ 1.8%
|
META
Meta Platforms Inc.
|
$626.49
-$11.69
|
|
▼ 1.6%
|
CRM
Salesforce Inc.
|
$196.10
-$3.18
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Finance
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #5 |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.