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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
Geneva is currently the world’s most awkward waiting room, hosting both US-Iran nuclear talks—where Jared Kushner is mediating indirectly via Oman—and Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, which Moscow prefaced by launching a "diplomatic" volley of 150 drones at Kyiv.
While diplomats struggle for traction, the corporate world saw a swift exit: Hyatt Executive Chairman Tom Pritzker checked out after 24 years, citing "terrible judgment" over newly revealed emails with Jeffrey Epstein.
In finance, the "soft landing" is looking softer with US inflation cooling to 2.4%, yet Wall Street is grumpy as Nvidia and Apple tumbled on fears that the AI gravy train is slowing down. Meanwhile, British bankers are plotting a Brexit from American payments, meeting this week to build a domestic rival to Visa and Mastercard just in case President Trump decides to turn off the financial tap.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
|
Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
|
Midterms
47%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
21%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive Summary Position. BUY NO on ceasefire by June 30 at 24%. BUY NO on ceasefire by Dec 31 at 43%, lower conviction. - Ceasefire by June 30: market 24%, fair value 16-20%, edge +4-8pp. Five independent signals converge on overpricing: decomposi...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 80.0%
|
Grok 4.20 released by February 17, 2026? (Yes 92%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 50.0%
|
Apple release a new product line by Febraury 28? (Yes 32%)
24h Price Movement
|
|
▼ 37.0%
|
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of Spotify listeners this month? (Yes 18%)
24h Price Movement
|
|
▼ 17.0%
|
US forces in Gaza before 2027? (Yes 34%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 13.0%
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Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? (Yes 70%)
24h Price Movement
|
Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.7%
|
AAPL
Apple Inc.
|
$260.20
+$4.42
|
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▲ 1.3%
|
V
Visa Inc.
|
$318.14
+$4.06
|
|
▲ 1.2%
|
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
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$306.24
+$3.69
|
Top Losers
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▼ 4.7%
|
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
|
$197.50
-$9.82
|
|
▼ 4.0%
|
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
|
$153.72
-$6.42
|
|
▼ 3.6%
|
TSLA
Tesla Inc.
|
$402.22
-$15.22
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Finance
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
|
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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