🏦 Finance & Markets

Oil briefly hits $120 — markets in freefall. Crude spiked to nearly $120/barrel overnight as the Iran war intensified, before settling near $107. The Dow futures dropped 600+ points, with the S&P 500 off ~1%, Nasdaq ~0.85%, and the Russell 2000 leading declines at −1.4%. Asian markets were hit hard: South Korea's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker (−7.7%), Japan's Nikkei sank 6.45%, Taiwan's TAIEX fell 4.86%.

Recession probability hits 30% on prediction markets. Kalshi's recession market surged overnight as Dow futures cratered above $100 oil. Oil markets pricing WTI reaching $140+ by year-end at 72% probability.

🗳️ Politics

Trump threatens major escalation in Iran. The president warned Iran would "be hit very hard" and suggested expanding target lists to "new areas and groups of people." German Chancellor Merz pressed Trump for clarity on war aims in an Oval Office meeting but left without a clear answer — alarming European allies about US strategic intent.

Government shutdown drags on. Kalshi markets price a 52%+ chance the shutdown lasts at least 60 days, and DHS funding resolution before April 1 at ~59%. Trump has said he won't sign other bills until the "Save America Act" passes, creating a prolonged standoff.

🌍 Geopolitics

Iran names new Supreme Leader. With Khamenei killed on February 28, Iran's Assembly of Experts is actively deliberating on a successor — Mojtaba Khamenei (son of the late leader) is among the frontrunners. Tehran continues to vow retaliation, striking civilian infrastructure including a desalination plant in Bahrain.

Strait of Hormuz under threat. The critical chokepoint — carrying ~20% of global oil and LNG — faces ongoing disruption. Gulf producers cut output as shipments stalled. Qatar's energy minister publicly warned the conflict could "bring down the economies of the world."

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