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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
It was a weekend that proved the news cycle never actually logs off, headlined by President Trump doubling down on a fresh 15% global tariff—just hours after the Supreme Court struck down his previous trade penalties—leaving U.S. businesses furiously rattling their tin cups for $133 billion in refunds.
On the finance front, markets are now forced to rapidly digest this policy whiplash, weighing the sugar-high of potential stimulus against the very real threat of re-ignited inflation and tightening private credit.
Adding a massive layer of cross-border chaos to the mix, Mexico has been paralyzed by widespread cartel violence after military forces killed notorious Jalisco drug boss "El Mencho," sparking a retaliatory wave of fiery roadblocks, grounded flights, and shelter-in-place orders that are sure to give North American travel and logistics sectors a major Monday headache.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
45%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
19%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
Executive summary Market. Kalshi KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB28, "What will Trump say during the State of the Union?" Event. February 24, 2026, 9:00 PM ET. Trump's first State of the Union of his second term, delivered to a joint session of the 119th Congres...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 39.0%
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US x Iran meeting by Febraury 28, 2026? (Yes 87%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 39.0%
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Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? (Yes 57%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 22.0%
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Will the NYSE trading floor be closed on Monday? (0%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 16.0%
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US evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28? (Yes 2%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 17.0%
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Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? (Yes 68%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.6%
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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
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$192.93
+$3.11
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▲ 1.3%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$124.65
+$1.66
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▲ 0.8%
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PFE
Pfizer Inc.
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$26.86
+$0.21
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Top Losers
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▼ 4.3%
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ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$247.46
-$11.15
|
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▼ 4.1%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$142.05
-$6.03
|
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▼ 4.1%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$177.66
-$7.50
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
Market of the Day
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Despite the recent 5% bump bringing the "Yes" probability to 18%, the successful killing of El Mencho might actually serve as a headwind for this contract resolving to "Yes". While President Trump has previously threatened unilateral military action against the cartels, geopolitical analysts note that Mexico is using this raid to signal that with U.S. intelligence sharing, they can handle cartel enforcement themselves—effectively negating the need for U.S. troops on Mexican soil. The 18% premium that traders are holding onto likely reflects the massive wave of retaliatory violence, roadblocks, and airport closures currently paralyzing several Mexican states. |
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