| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Futures edge higher on Iran talk hopes. Dow futures rose ~280 points (+0.6%), with S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also up ~0.6% as Wall Street begins a holiday-shortened week (markets closed Friday for Good Friday). Optimism around progress in US-Iran diplomatic channels is lifting sentiment.
🗳️ Politics
TSA back pay begins today; 500 officers have quit. TSA workers should start receiving their back pay Monday after Trump ordered immediate resumption of compensation Friday. But the damage continues — over 500 TSA officers have quit since the DHS funding lapse on Feb 14, and workers have now missed two full paychecks.
🌍 Geopolitics
Iran war Day 31: Diplomatic push intensifies. Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are meeting in Islamabad to seek an end to the US-Israel campaign against Iran. Trump signaled progress, saying Iran has agreed to most US demands conveyed via Pakistan.
Democrats win U.S. House (2026) - 84% YES
Gov't shutdown lasts ≥ 70 days - 63% YES
Men's College Basketball Champion - Arizona 34%, Michigan 34%
Macro Signal
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Recession
37%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
22%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Case: United States v. Hemani, No. 24-1234 (5th Cir.) | Volume: $49,840 | Open interest: 17,555 contracts --- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Position: BUY NO at 84 cents. Fair Value: YES ~14% base case (range 12-17%). NO ~86%. Edge: ~7 percentage points on NO. Th...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▼ 6.0%
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Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? (Yes 2%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 4.0%
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Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? (Yes 62%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 3.0%
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USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? (Yes 16%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 3.0%
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Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? (Yes 28%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 2.0%
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Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat? (Yes 21%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 2.8%
|
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
|
$207.62
+$5.63
|
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▲ 2.7%
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PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$44.78
+$1.19
|
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▲ 2.0%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$182.81
+$3.50
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Top Losers
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▼ 1.0%
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NFLX
Netflix Inc.
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$92.53
-$0.90
|
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▼ 0.2%
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CSCO
Cisco Systems
|
$79.75
-$0.17
|
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▼ 0.1%
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AAPL
Apple Inc.
|
$248.61
-$0.19
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.