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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
Finance & Markets
S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs — The S&P 500 climbed 0.77% to close at 7,501.24 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.88% to 26,635.22 on May 14, both scoring record intraday highs and record closes.
Politics
Trump-Xi Beijing summit concludes — President Trump and Chinese President Xi held high-stakes talks at the Great Hall of the People. Trump claimed China committed to withholding military equipment from Iran; no major trade breakthroughs announced.
Geopolitics
Iran war continues to choke global energy — The UN warns that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could drive up food and fertiliser costs and worsen global hunger. Both Iranian and U.S. blockades have effectively closed the strait.
Sports
PGA Championship Round 2 underway at Aronimink — Scottie Scheffler leads at −3 with 28% odds to win on Kalshi. Xander Schauffele sits at −3 with 7–8% odds. The tournament is being held at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Gavin Newsom 25% YES
2028 Republican presidential nominee — J.D. Vance - 34% YES
Macro Signal
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Recession
24%
Moderate
|
Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
|
CPI Forecast
3%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
0%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
!Kalshi: Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027? — 24% chance, $7,764 volume Executive summary Position. BUY NO at 24 cents on Kalshi's KXSCOTUSAICOPYRIGHT-27JAN contract. Small size. Working fair value (the probabil...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 13.4%
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CSCO
Cisco Systems
|
$115.53
+$13.66
|
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▲ 4.4%
|
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
|
$235.74
+$9.91
|
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▲ 3.1%
|
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
|
$195.61
+$5.85
|
Top Losers
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▼ 3.6%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
|
$115.93
-$4.36
|
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▼ 1.1%
|
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
|
$267.22
-$2.91
|
|
▼ 0.8%
|
PFE
Pfizer Inc.
|
$25.75
-$0.21
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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