| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York โข London โข Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
๐ฆ Finance & Markets
US futures slide as Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade. S&P 500 poised to drop ~0.6% at the open after the President ordered a naval blockade of Iranian port traffic following failed weekend peace talks. Risk-off sentiment is spreading globally.
๐ณ๏ธ Politics
Trump orders Strait of Hormuz blockade effective today. US Central Command announced it will enforce a blockade against vessels of all nations entering or exiting Iranian ports starting at 10:00 AM ET, after 21 hours of US-Iran negotiations broke down in Pakistan over the weekend.
๐ Geopolitics
US-Iran peace talks collapse after 21-hour marathon. Negotiations in Pakistan ended without agreement, prompting the US to escalate with a full naval blockade of Iran's ports. Iran's military called the blockade "an illegal act amounting to piracy."
Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by April 30 ~11% YES
Democrats win Senate in 2026 ~50% YES
Macro Signal
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Recession
33%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
16%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
California's jungle primary is June 2. The top two finishers -- regardless of party -- advance to the November general. --- TOM STEYER JUST WENT FROM AFTERTHOUGHT TO FRONTRUNNER IN FIVE DAYS A week ago, Eric Swalwell was the clear leader in the Democ...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame โBreaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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โฒ 84.0%
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Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? (Yes 89%)
24h Price Movement
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โฒ 76.0%
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Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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โผ 74.0%
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Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? (Yes 1%)
24h Price Movement
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โผ 69.0%
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Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? (Yes 2%)
24h Price Movement
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โฒ 68.0%
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Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? (Yes 97%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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โฒ 0.7%
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MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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$373.57
+$2.70
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โฒ 0.3%
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TSLA
Tesla Inc.
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$350.09
+$1.14
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โฒ 0.2%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$138.11
+$0.25
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Top Losers
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โผ 3.4%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$164.98
-$5.87
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โผ 2.0%
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ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$225.37
-$4.57
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โผ 1.3%
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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
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$186.12
-$2.51
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.