| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
_(6)_1766501040798.png)
Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Futures rally on Iran ceasefire extension. S&P 500 futures up 0.55%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.73%, and Dow futures up ~207 points after Trump announced an extension of the Iran ceasefire. Markets are cautiously optimistic heading into the session.
🗳️ Politics
Trump extends Iran ceasefire. The president extended the ceasefire indefinitely, saying the US is waiting for a "unified proposal" from Tehran's "fractured" government. However, the US naval blockade on Iranian ports remains in place — a sticking point Tehran calls an "act of war."
🌍 Geopolitics
Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global shipping through the critical waterway is still largely halted despite the ceasefire extension. Markets price normalization before June 1 at just ~42% odds.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair - 93.5% Yes
Gov't shutdown lasts 100+ days - 93% Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before July - 42% Yes
Macro Signal
|
Recession
27%
Elevated
|
Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
|
Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
|
CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
0%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Kalshi Contract: "Will Trump recognize Taiwan?" Resolves January 20, 2029. Platform Volume: $17,571. Executive Summary Position. BUY NO at 83 cents Fair Value. 1 to 9 percent. Edge. +17 pp against a 19% YES market. Conviction. 6/10. Data quality 4/10...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
|
▲ 86.0%
|
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? (Yes 92%)
24h Price Movement
|
|
▼ 75.0%
|
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? (Yes 5%)
24h Price Movement
|
|
▲ 68.0%
|
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? (Yes 97%)
24h Price Movement
|
|
▲ 58.0%
|
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? (Yes 84%)
24h Price Movement
|
|
▲ 55.0%
|
OpenGradient FDV above $200M one day after launch? (Yes 99%)
24h Price Movement
|
Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
|
▲ 2.4%
|
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
|
$253.03
+$5.85
|
|
▲ 2.0%
|
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
|
$290.20
+$5.71
|
|
▲ 1.3%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
|
$67.13
+$0.87
|
Top Losers
|
▼ 0.4%
|
MA
Mastercard Inc.
|
$509.14
-$2.21
|
|
▼ 0.4%
|
V
Visa Inc.
|
$308.77
-$1.17
|
|
▼ 0.2%
|
WMT
Walmart Inc.
|
$129.34
-$0.26
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
|
Finance
|
Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
|
|
Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
| #1 |
|
| #2 |
|
| #3 |
|
| #4 |
|
| #5 |
|
In The News
Full Analytics Dashboard
View Dashboard →flowframe.xyz · est 2025
You're receiving this because you subscribed to FlowFrame's daily newsletter.
Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.