| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
In a marathon 108-minute State of the Union address that tested the endurance of Congress, President Trump touted a "turnaround for the ages" and a "roaring economy," handed out medals, and gave a glowing shoutout to the Olympic gold-winning U.S. men's hockey team—all while shrugging off the Supreme Court's recent move to strike down his beloved tariffs.
Across the aisle, Democrats offered icy silence and vocal protests before Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger delivered a fiery rebuttal, pointing out that everyday Americans aren't quite feeling the economic magic.
Beyond the Capitol's walls, the rest of the world kept spinning: Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum is reportedly mulling legal action over Elon Musk's online jabs, an FBI whistleblower claims the agency is locking horns with Kash Patel, and a tragic stabbing in Washington state reminds us that the real world remains just as unpredictable as the political one.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
45%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
18%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive Summary Position. BUY NO on "Orban out in 2026" (Polymarket, 61% YES); BUY ORBAN on "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" (Polymarket, 38%; Kalshi, 44%). Fair Value. Orban remains PM: 48-55% (current market: 38-44%). Orban out: 45-52% (current m...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▼ 16.0%
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Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated by February 28, 2026? (Yes 10%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 88.0%
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Will Kash Patel attend the 2026 State of the Union address? (Yes 1%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 25.0%
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Next Thai Prime Minister chosen by March 31? (Yes 57%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 19.0%
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Epic Games IPO before 2027? (Yes 38%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 13.0%
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Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the US by February 28, 2026? (Yes 14%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 4.7%
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NFLX
Netflix Inc.
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$81.69
+$3.65
|
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▲ 3.4%
|
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$151.17
+$5.03
|
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▲ 2.1%
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MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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$397.00
+$8.00
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Top Losers
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▼ 2.9%
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HD
The Home Depot
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$373.21
-$11.27
|
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▼ 1.4%
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PG
Procter & Gamble
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$162.92
-$2.36
|
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▼ 1.0%
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DIS
Walt Disney Company
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$104.98
-$1.07
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Finance
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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