| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Markets drift flat as oil spikes on Iran conflict. S&P 500 futures up ~0.1%, SPY down 0.2%, Dow down 0.12%, Nasdaq flat. Brent crude climbed back above $90/barrel as Iran's attacks on Gulf shipping disrupted supply. The average US gas price hit $3.54/gallon — a 21% jump in one month and the highest since mid-2024.
CPI comes in line, offering modest relief. February CPI rose 2.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM, matching expectations. Core CPI (ex food & energy) rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY — providing a brief reassurance that inflation remains contained despite the oil shock.
🗳️ Politics
US-Israel-Iran War (Day 11): 140 US troops wounded. The Pentagon confirmed 140 service members have been injured during the now 11-day campaign, with eight suffering life-threatening injuries. The US military also destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying naval vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in a preemptive strike based on intelligence.
Trump warns Iran of "immense force" over Hormuz threats. President Trump issued a direct warning that any Iranian attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would be met with overwhelming US military retaliation. Defense Secretary Hegseth declared today would be "the most intense day of strikes inside Iran."
Macro Signal
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Recession
30%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
2.1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
47%
D-House, D-Senate
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CPI Forecast
3%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
16%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive summary | | | |---|---| | Primary position | BUY NO at 31.5% — Mar 31 contract | | Secondary position | BUY NO at 20.0% — Mar 14 contract | | Tertiary position | BUY NO at 58.5% — Dec 31 contract | | No trade | Mar 7 contract (e...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 10.9%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
|
$165.62
+$16.22
|
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▲ 3.8%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
|
$48.54
+$1.76
|
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▲ 3.2%
|
TSLA
Tesla Inc.
|
$411.86
+$12.63
|
Top Losers
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▼ 2.6%
|
PG
Procter & Gamble
|
$152.01
-$4.00
|
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▼ 1.0%
|
MA
Mastercard Inc.
|
$509.46
-$5.26
|
|
▼ 0.9%
|
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
|
$96.04
-$0.90
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.