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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Stocks slide on renewed Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 fell 0.91%, the Dow dropped 0.83% (−394 pts), and the Nasdaq declined 1.07% after hopes for an Iran ceasefire faded. Yesterday's rally on peace deal rumors was reversed after Iran rejected the U.S. 15-point proposal.
🗳️ Politics
DHS funding impasse stalls ahead of recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said negotiations are "going in circles" on reopening the Department of Homeland Security, with Congress set to leave for a two-week Easter/Passover recess tomorrow. Airport lines remain long due to the partial shutdown.
🌍 Geopolitics
Iran rejects U.S. 15-point peace plan. Foreign Minister Araghchi said Washington's shift to diplomacy amounts to an admission of failure after previously demanding "unconditional surrender." Day 26 of the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran continues.
WTI oil ≥ $130.01 by year-end - 45% YES
Democrats win U.S. House (2026) - 84% YES
DHS shutdown lasts ≥ 50 days - 59% YES
More tech layoffs in 2026 than 2025 - 84% YES
Macro Signal
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Recession
36%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
23%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, every prediction market touching Iran is converging at two physical points. The Strait of Hormuz is the regime's shield, and Kharg Island is its throat. A third variable sits on the other side of the globe. The K...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 8.0%
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Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? (Yes 78%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 7.0%
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GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? (Yes 61%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 6.0%
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Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? (Yes 14%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 5.0%
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Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX's initial public offering? (Yes 30%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 4.0%
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Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? (Yes 35%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 2.5%
|
CRM
Salesforce Inc.
|
$186.51
+$4.55
|
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▲ 2.1%
|
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$242.30
+$5.05
|
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▲ 1.9%
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PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$45.70
+$0.85
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Top Losers
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▼ 3.9%
|
META
Meta Platforms Inc.
|
$571.54
-$23.35
|
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▼ 2.9%
|
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$213.78
-$6.49
|
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▼ 2.8%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
|
$45.88
-$1.30
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #5 |
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In The News
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