| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
If the world stage were a group chat, it would be "typing..." aggressively right now. Geopolitically, Russia is flexing a new hypersonic missile in Ukraine while Iran has ghosted its own citizens with a nationwide internet blackout amidst protests, and the U.S. is playing a high-stakes game of Risk with Venezuela’s oil and Greenland’s real estate. Financially, the U.S. economy posted a lukewarm 50,000 new jobs—hardly a party, but markets are distracted by a potential mining mega-merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto that has investors swooning. To cap it off, Meta is literally going nuclear to power its AI ambitions.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
50%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
15%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
What Actually Triggers Resolution The Kalshi contract doesn't resolve when Musk tweets "we're going public." It doesn't even resolve when SpaceX files an S-1. According to the market rules, the contract resolves only when one of three things happens:...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 62.0%
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Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? (Yes 73%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 28.0%
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Will US GDP growth in q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%? (Yes 52%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 24.0%
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ICE Shooter charged by March 31? (Yes 20%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 22.0%
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US Strike on Mexico by December 31? (Yes 38%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 15.0%
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Will US Strike Iran by June 30, 2026? (Yes 53%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 7.8%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$44.30
+$3.19
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▲ 1.4%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$114.62
+$1.55
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▲ 0.9%
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
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$328.50
+$3.06
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Top Losers
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▼ 2.3%
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ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$331.16
-$7.88
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▼ 1.6%
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NFLX
Netflix Inc.
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$89.08
-$1.45
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▼ 1.3%
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PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$57.51
-$0.76
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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Here is why the U.S. / Iran tension markets are going vertical: The Catalyst (Blackout + Bloodshed): Iran pulled the plug on the internet yesterday (Jan 8) to hide a massive crackdown on economic protests. Reports confirm ~45 protesters are already dead. The "Red Line": President Trump explicitly threatened "severe action" if Tehran killed protesters. The market is pricing in that this condition has now been met. The Hardware: It’s not just talk. OSINT trackers spotted dozens of US Air Force tankers and heavy transport planes (C-17s, KC-135s) deploying to the Middle East yesterday. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.