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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
In today's edition of "What's the World Up To?", South Korea's former President Yoon just traded the Blue House for the big house with a life sentence for insurrection, while over in the UK, former Prince Andrew was arrested on misconduct suspicions, proving that royal titles don't always come with a "get out of jail free" card.
Meanwhile, nature is unfortunately refusing to play nice, with a tragic and historic avalanche near California's Lake Tahoe claiming eight skiers.
On the money front, artificial intelligence remains the reigning economic kingmaker as TSMC braces for a massive 27% profit surge, and gold has comfortably smashed the $5,000-an-ounce ceiling as investors panic-buy shiny rocks amidst rising geopolitical tensions. If you were holding your breath for immediate rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's latest minutes still have a slightly hawkish bite—so you might want to clutch those Walmart shares a little tighter and wait for the retail giant's upcoming Q4 earnings to save the day.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
46%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
20%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
Executive Summary The Kalshi market for SpaceX's February 2026 launch count prices the "Above 12" contract at 71 cents. That implies a 71% probability of 13 or more orbital launches this month. SpaceX has completed six through February 17, with anoth...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 24.0%
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Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? (Yes 80%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 25.0%
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Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? (Yes 41%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 24.0%
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Will Doordash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025? (Yes100%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 19.0%
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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? (Yes 59%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 19.0%
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Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? (Yes 62%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.9%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$187.79
+$3.50
|
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▲ 1.8%
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AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
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$204.79
+$3.64
|
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▲ 1.7%
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CSCO
Cisco Systems
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$78.18
+$1.33
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Top Losers
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▼ 1.7%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$126.62
-$2.23
|
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▼ 1.7%
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PG
Procter & Gamble
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$156.86
-$2.69
|
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▼ 1.6%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$45.46
-$0.72
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #4 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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The Bullish Spike: The market surged recently because the U.S. and Iran held a second round of revived, Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva on February 17. Iran struck a surprisingly optimistic tone following the meetings, announcing that the two sides had actually reached an agreement on "general guiding principles" to move forward.
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