| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5–3.75% Amid Iran Conflict — The FOMC voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark rate steady on Wednesday, with Chair Powell warning that surging energy prices from the Iran-Israel conflict could reignite inflation. Markets now expect at most one cut in all of 2026.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5–3.75% Amid Iran Conflict — The FOMC voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark rate steady on Wednesday, with Chair Powell warning that surging energy prices from the Iran-Israel conflict could reignite inflation. Markets now expect at most one cut in all of 2026.
🌍 Geopolitics
Gulf Energy Infrastructure Under Sustained Attack — After Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, Iran retaliated by hitting energy sites in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, and Turkey. Saudi Arabia intercepted ballistic missiles over Riyadh and "reserved the right to take military action." Qatari air defenses launched interceptors over Doha. Trump warned Iran against further strikes on South Pars.
🏆 Sports
March Madness Officially Tips Off — The 2026 NCAA Tournament First Four is tonight: Samford vs. Southern (7 PM ET, ESPN2) and Arizona State vs. Virginia (9 PM ET). Duke is the No. 1 overall seed; favorites to win it all include Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and defending champion Florida. UConn enters the women's tournament undefeated and is favored to win its 13th title.
Fed decision in April? 93% — Fed holds
Number of Fed rate cuts in 2026? 37% — Exactly 0 cuts
CPI in March above 0.9%? 50% — Above 0.9%
Traffic through Strait of Hormuz (3/16–3/22)? 60% — Above 40 ships
Macro Signal
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Recession
34%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
19%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive summary | | | |---|---| | Primary position | BUY NO at 31.5% — Mar 31 contract | | Secondary position | BUY NO at 20.0% — Mar 14 contract | | Tertiary position | BUY NO at 58.5% — Dec 31 contract | | No trade | Mar 7 contract (e...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▼ 90.0%
|
Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam's 2026 municipal election? (Yes 1%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 34.0%
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Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? (Yes 27%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 27.0%
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Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? (Yes 59%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 21.0%
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Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? (Yes 46%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 16.0%
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Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? (Yes 27%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.8%
|
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
|
$155.72
+$2.82
|
|
▲ 1.5%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
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$45.71
+$0.68
|
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▲ 1.0%
|
CSCO
Cisco Systems
|
$78.38
+$0.78
|
Top Losers
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▼ 2.5%
|
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
|
$92.35
-$2.35
|
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▼ 2.5%
|
TSLA
Tesla Inc.
|
$383.10
-$9.68
|
|
▼ 1.5%
|
WMT
Walmart Inc.
|
$120.20
-$1.78
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #5 |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.