| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York โข London โข Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
๐ฆ Finance & Markets
S&P 500 rallies ~1% on Iran de-escalation hopes. Futures jumped after reports that President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The S&P 500 is still on pace for its worst month since 2022.
๐ณ๏ธ Politics
DHS partial shutdown drags on. Funding negotiations continue with no resolution in sight. The shutdown has caused the longest TSA wait times in history, forcing airlines to rebook passengers who missed flights due to massive airport delays.
๐ Geopolitics
Iran strikes Gulf neighbors; Bahrain sirens sound. Iran launched new attacks on Gulf states, with Saudi Arabia intercepting three ballistic missiles. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near-zero after Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended operations.
Arizona to win NCAA Tournament - 35% YES
U.S. Recession in 2026 ~34% YES
Macro Signal
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Recession
37%
Elevated
|
Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
23%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Kristi Noem got fired on March 5. That was the shot across the bow. Now Kalshi has a live market on who's next -- and the odds say the top of Trump's national security team is unstable. $2.4 million has been traded. Here are the top three: !Kalshi โ ...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame โStock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
|
โฒ 3.9%
|
META
Meta Platforms Inc.
|
$557.48
+$21.10
|
|
โฒ 3.3%
|
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
|
$170.64
+$5.47
|
|
โฒ 3.1%
|
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
|
$281.91
+$8.41
|
Top Losers
|
โผ 0.9%
|
PG
Procter & Gamble
|
$143.46
-$1.26
|
|
โผ 0.3%
|
V
Visa Inc.
|
$298.76
-$0.78
|
|
โผ 0.1%
|
MA
Mastercard Inc.
|
$493.34
-$0.66
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
| #1 |
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| #2 |
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.