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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh records. The S&P 500 closed at 7,412.84 (+0.19%) and Nasdaq at 26,274.13 (+0.1%) on Monday, both setting new all-time highs. The Dow finished at 49,704.47 (+0.19%). Chip stocks continued to extend gains.
Futures slip ahead of CPI report. S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.7% Tuesday morning as traders brace for April's Consumer Price Index. Consensus expects headline CPI at +3.7% YoY (+0.6% MoM) — another hot reading driven by energy prices.
🗳️ Politics
Trump rejects Iran ceasefire proposal. The President called Tehran's counterproposal "garbage" and "totally unacceptable," declaring the month-old ceasefire "on massive life support." New sanctions were imposed on 12 companies facilitating Iranian oil sales to China.
🌍 Geopolitics
Iran war toll mounts. Preliminary figures put the death toll at 3,468 in Iran, 2,702 in Lebanon, and 28 in Gulf states. Iranians face skyrocketing food prices as inflation soars and the currency plunges under the U.S.-enforced naval blockade.
Democrats win House 2026 - 84% YES
Democrats win Senate 2026 - 50% YES
Iran ceasefire holds~70% YES
Macro Signal
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Recession
23%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
0%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive Summary Kalshi's three-contract House departure series asks whether all four named representatives — Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick — will have left the chamber before each of three deadlines. Three...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 3.9%
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TSLA
Tesla Inc.
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$445.00
+$16.65
|
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▲ 3.6%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
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$129.44
+$4.52
|
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▲ 2.2%
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CSCO
Cisco Systems
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$98.72
+$2.15
|
Top Losers
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▼ 3.1%
|
DIS
Walt Disney Company
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$104.72
-$3.30
|
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▼ 3.0%
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
|
$388.64
-$12.16
|
|
▼ 2.7%
|
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
|
$246.15
-$6.89
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Finance
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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