| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
S&P 500 near all-time high. Equities are holding firm just below the record of 7,002.28 (set Jan. 28) as optimism grows around a potential US–Iran de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
🗳️ Politics
Hill GOP in disarray. House Republicans are stuck on FISA reauthorization while Senate Republicans are struggling to advance their reconciliation package.
🌍 Geopolitics
Iran war update. US Central Command says it has successfully blocked all traffic to and from Iranian ports in the first 24 hours of the blockade; Trump says the war is "close to over."
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal before Jun 1, 2026 - 48% YES
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before Jan 20, 2029? - 51% YES
California Governor 2026 winner — Tom Steyer - 65%
Macro Signal
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Recession
28%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
0%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
!Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? — Kalshi market chart showing Zeldin 50%, Blanche 24%, Pirro 5% The Setup Pam Bondi was fired on April 2, 2026, after 14 months as Attorney General, which is the shortest tenure in half a century. The real ...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 65.0%
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Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 46.0%
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Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? (Yes 5%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 43.0%
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Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? (Yes 69%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 43.0%
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Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? (Yes 41%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 42.0%
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Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? (Yes 74%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 5.5%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$171.90
+$8.90
|
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▲ 3.2%
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MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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$405.83
+$12.72
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▲ 3.2%
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TSLA
Tesla Inc.
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$375.93
+$11.73
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Top Losers
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▼ 1.3%
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CSCO
Cisco Systems
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$81.52
-$1.09
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▼ 1.3%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$123.42
-$1.63
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▼ 1.1%
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HD
The Home Depot
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$338.77
-$3.94
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.