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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
It’s February 20, 2026, and the Supreme Court just served the White House a massive reality check. In a brutal 6-3 smackdown, the justices ruled that President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs are officially illegal, instantly throwing a wrench into his signature economic agenda. Wall Street, however, isn't exactly mourning the loss; markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief and holding steady as investors celebrate the sudden removal of a massive global trade roadblock.
The broader economy could certainly use the win, considering U.S. growth just limped in at a sluggish 1.4% for the fourth quarter, leaving companies like Aston Martin to issue grim profit warnings over the recent tariff fallout.
Add in boiling geopolitical tensions as the U.S. slaps Iran with a tense 15-day ultimatum, plus the shocking arrest of Prince Andrew across the pond, and it’s safe to say that whether you're trading equities, navigating international diplomacy, or just trying to sell luxury British sports cars, today is an absolute rollercoaster.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
46%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
21%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive Summary Position. BUY NO on "Orban out in 2026" (Polymarket, 61% YES); BUY ORBAN on "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" (Polymarket, 38%; Kalshi, 44%). Fair Value. Orban remains PM: 48-55% (current market: 38-44%). Orban out: 45-52% (current m...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 96.0%
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Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1% and 1.5%? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 40.0%
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Gemini 3.5 released by May 31 (Yes 37%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 23.0%
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Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? (Yes 28%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 16.0%
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Wil anyone be charged over daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? (Yes 47%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 15.0%
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Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Genesis Invitational? (Yes 21%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 3.7%
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
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$314.20
+$11.35
|
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▲ 2.5%
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AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
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$209.99
+$5.13
|
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▲ 1.8%
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META
Meta Platforms Inc.
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$656.42
+$11.64
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Top Losers
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▼ 2.8%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$43.37
-$1.25
|
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▼ 2.7%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$152.25
-$4.29
|
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▼ 2.1%
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WMT
Walmart Inc.
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$122.29
-$2.58
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #5 |
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In The News
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