| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
The last 24 hours have been a masterclass in "spending money to lose money," as the finance world watched Amazon announce a casual $200 billion AI infrastructure tab—a figure so large it sent investors running for the exits.
Not to be outdone in the "expensive oopsie" category, Stellantis shares fell off a cliff after the automaker swallowed a €22 billion bitter pill to "reset" its struggling EV business, proving that the road to the future is paved with very expensive asphalt.
Meanwhile, the European Commission officially labeled TikTok a digital narcotic, accusing it of "addictive design," while Bitcoin spent the night soul-searching at its lowest levels since 2024 before deciding it wasn’t quite ready to meet its maker just yet.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
46%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
20%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
The Puzzle Polymarket prices US acquisition of part of Greenland in 2026 at 20%. Kalshi prices US control of any part of Greenland at 46% before January 2029. Kalshi prices Trump taking back the Panama Canal at 35%. Conventional geopolitical analysis...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 35.0%
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Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? (Yes 46%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 34.0%
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Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity's Last Exam? (Yes 96%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 33.0%
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Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4? (92%)
24h Price Movement
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▼ 31.0%
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US x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? (Yes 36%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 6.3%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$204.70
+$12.20
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▲ 5.1%
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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
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$180.71
+$8.83
|
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▲ 4.7%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$50.53
+$2.29
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Top Losers
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▼ 9.3%
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AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
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$201.95
-$20.74
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▼ 2.3%
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
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$323.63
-$7.62
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▼ 1.9%
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META
Meta Platforms Inc.
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$657.15
-$13.06
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #4 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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Super Bowl LX is shaping up to be an $11 million revenge tour on Polymarket, where bettors are currently pricing the Seattle Seahawks as 69% favorites to finally exorcise the ghosts of their 2015 goal-line nightmare against the New England Patriots. It’s a "Redemption vs. Revival" showdown: the Seahawks are leaning on a resurgent Sam Darnold and a "British mastermind" defense to secure their second trophy, while the Patriots—led by sensation Drake Maye and coach Mike Vrabel—are hunting a record-breaking seventh title. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.