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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
It was a weekend of heavy accumulation—of snow in the Southeast, trophies for Bad Bunny, and new responsibilities for Kevin Warsh.
While the Carolinas dug out from a bomb cyclone named Gianna, President Trump dug into the archives of 2008 to nominate Warsh as the next Fed Chair, signaling that the era of "higher for longer" might soon be replaced by "lower for loyalty"—or at least a very different kind of open market operation.
Elsewhere, Carlos Alcaraz completed a career Grand Slam faster than you can say "yield curve control," denying Novak Djokovic his 25th major.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
46%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
18%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
The Puzzle Polymarket prices US acquisition of part of Greenland in 2026 at 20%. Kalshi prices US control of any part of Greenland at 46% before January 2029. Kalshi prices Trump taking back the Panama Canal at 35%. Conventional geopolitical analysis...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 97.0%
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Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual Grammy awards? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 39.0%
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Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 35.0%
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Will anyone be jailed over Epstein Disclosures? (Yes 13%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 24.0%
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US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? (Yes 64%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 18.0%
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SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? (Yes 84%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 3.6%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$245.25
+$8.52
|
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▲ 2.7%
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V
Visa Inc.
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$330.63
+$8.80
|
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▲ 2.5%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
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$47.63
+$1.16
|
Top Losers
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▼ 6.5%
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DIS
Walt Disney Company
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$105.49
-$7.31
|
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▼ 3.0%
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TSLA
Tesla Inc.
|
$417.34
-$13.07
|
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▼ 2.3%
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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
|
$186.75
-$4.38
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
Market of the Day
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Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, sending the "Yes" contract on Polymarket vertical. The shadow-derivative market instantly priced in "six more weeks of winter" with >99% certainty. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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