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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
On the global stage, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have kicked off in Geneva with President Trump claiming "indirect" involvement, while Iran's Supreme Leader casually took to social media to threaten U.S. warships—a diplomatic strategy that certainly keeps everyone on edge.
Up north, Canada just deployed dealmaking businessman Mark Wiseman as its new ambassador to Washington to navigate an obstacle course of fresh tariff and annexation threats. Meanwhile, over in the financial realm, Wall Street is suffering from a severe case of AI whiplash; investors are sweating over the billions poured into the sector, torn between fears that artificial intelligence will eat their profit margins or simply fail to deliver, which has led to a tech-stock selloff while the broader market treads water.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
47%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
21%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Executive Summary Position. BUY NO on ceasefire by June 30 at 24%. BUY NO on ceasefire by Dec 31 at 43%, lower conviction. - Ceasefire by June 30: market 24%, fair value 16-20%, edge +4-8pp. Five independent signals converge on overpricing: decomposi...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▼ 23.0%
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Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? (Yes 23%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 23.0%
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US x Iran Military engagement by March 31, 2026? (Yes 61%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 23.0%
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Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? (Yes 62%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 22.0%
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Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? (Yes 66%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 12.0%
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Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? (Yes 53%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 2.4%
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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
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$189.34
+$4.37
|
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▲ 2.1%
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AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
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$205.44
+$4.29
|
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▲ 1.7%
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DIS
Walt Disney Company
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$107.25
+$1.81
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Top Losers
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▼ 2.0%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$199.05
-$4.03
|
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▼ 0.6%
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BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway
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$500.25
-$3.16
|
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▼ 0.6%
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PG
Procter & Gamble
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$158.64
-$0.91
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
Market of the Day
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The recent spike to 31% reflects the heightened brinkmanship and fragility surrounding the ongoing nuclear talks in Geneva. Although diplomats are at the table, negotiations are heavily strained by rigid "red lines," including U.S. demands that Iran limit its ballistic missiles and cut support for regional proxy groups. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.
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