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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
Markets mixed as Middle East tensions persist. S&P 500 futures were down 0.2% in pre-market after Monday's strong rally. The Dow jumped 631 points (+1.38%) on Monday to close at 46,208, the S&P 500 rose 1.15% to 6,581, and the Nasdaq gained 1.38% to 21,946 — fueled by brief optimism over possible Iran talks.
🗳️ Politics
Iran talks in dispute — Day 25 of US-Israel strikes. Trump announced Washington is holding talks with Tehran and that "major points of agreement" had been reached. Iran flatly denied any contact, accusing the US of buying time. Trump ordered a 5-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure.
🌍 Geopolitics
Israel strikes central Tehran; Iran retaliates. Israel conducted a major wave of air strikes in central Tehran targeting command centers, with 50+ additional targets hit overnight. Iran responded with missile barrages hitting Tel Aviv, damaging a residential building.
WTI oil ≥$200 by end of year - 11% YES
Democrats win U.S. House (2026) - 84% YES
DHS funded before Apr 1, 2026 - 81% YES
Men's College Basketball Champion: Michigan - 22% YES
Macro Signal
|
Recession
35%
Elevated
|
Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
|
Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
|
CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
23%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, every prediction market touching Iran is converging at two physical points. The Strait of Hormuz is the regime's shield, and Kharg Island is its throat. A third variable sits on the other side of the globe. The K...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▼ 24.0%
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Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? (Yes 34%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 13.0%
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Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? (Yes 61%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 9.0%
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Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? (Yes 56%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 8.0%
|
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? (Yes 16%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▼ 7.0%
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USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? (Yes 29%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.8%
|
WMT
Walmart Inc.
|
$122.90
+$2.18
|
|
▲ 1.2%
|
CSCO
Cisco Systems
|
$79.73
+$0.91
|
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▲ 1.0%
|
TSLA
Tesla Inc.
|
$384.56
+$3.71
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Top Losers
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▼ 4.9%
|
CRM
Salesforce Inc.
|
$185.64
-$9.54
|
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▼ 4.2%
|
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
|
$147.93
-$6.41
|
|
▼ 3.3%
|
ADBE
Adobe Inc.
|
$239.44
-$8.20
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Tech/Culture
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
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