| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
The global board looks increasingly fractured this morning, even as the U.S. economy attempts to rewrite its own history. Domestically, the headline jobs number for January is a solid 130,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%—but the real story is the massive revision to 2025’s data, which erased 403,000 jobs from the record books. It appears the "soft landing" was actually a low-altitude stall that we’re only just acknowledging.
Internationally, the mood is far more volatile. While Canada reels from the horrific school shooting in Tumbler Ridge, B.C., which has left 10 dead, geopolitical risk meters are flashing red elsewhere.
Bangladesh is on edge ahead of tomorrow’s general election—its first since the "Monsoon Revolution"—with security forces blanketing Dhaka. Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Tehran are spiking after President Trump threatened "tough" repercussions if U.S. demands aren't met, and Ukraine is pivoting its war strategy, signing a fresh deal with France to localize weapons production as the conflict grinds into another spring.
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
46%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
20%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
Why Betting on Timothée Chalamet at 77% Is the Smartest Oscar Play The Kalshi market for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars prices Timothée Chalamet at 77% to win for Marty Supreme. Leonardo DiCaprio sits at 10%, Michael B. Jordan at 9%. Those odds aren't...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▼ 41.0%
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US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? (Yes 4%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 35.0%
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Nancy Guthrie Kidnapper arrested by February 28? (Yes 83%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 25.0%
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Will the Court force Trump to refund tariffs? (Yes 39%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 20.0%
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Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? (Yes 76%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 19.0%
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Will Norway win the most gold Medals in the 2026 Winter olympics? (Yes 93%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 4.9%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$49.44
+$2.31
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▲ 1.9%
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TSLA
Tesla Inc.
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$433.44
+$8.23
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▲ 1.8%
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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
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$191.94
+$3.40
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Top Losers
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▼ 3.5%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$186.64
-$6.81
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▼ 2.7%
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ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$257.61
-$7.06
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▼ 1.9%
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PYPL
PayPal Holdings
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$40.71
-$0.78
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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In The News
Market of the Day
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The Catalyst: Anthropic Drops Opus 4.6
"Anthropic Announces Claude Opus 4.6 as Next Step in Enterprise AI" – PYMNTS, Feb 5, 2026
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.