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| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
🏦 Finance & Markets
S&P 500 futures up ~0.8% in early trading after a rough session Tuesday where the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6,556 and the Dow shed 84 points to 46,124. Markets are rallying on reports the US has drafted a 15-point peace plan to end the Iran conflict.
🗳️ Politics
DHS shutdown enters second month — The Department of Homeland Security remains unfunded for over 30 days. TSA workers have now missed three pay periods. Bipartisan Senate negotiations continue with White House border czar Tom Homan, but no deal is in sight.
🌍 Geopolitics
US drafts 15-point Iran peace plan — The Trump administration has reportedly drafted a comprehensive ceasefire proposal as the US-Israel military campaign against Iran enters Day 25. Over 82,000 civilian structures have been damaged or destroyed per the Iranian Red Crescent. Iran appointed a new national security chief after the previous one was killed in a strike on March 17.
🏆 Sports
March Madness Sweet 16 tips off tomorrow — The NCAA Tournament field is set at 16 teams. Key matchups include Iowa vs. Nebraska (Mar 26), Alabama vs. Michigan (Mar 27). Michigan and Arizona lead championship odds at 22% and 21% respectively.
Fed maintains rate in April - 93% YES
Dems win U.S. House (2026) - 84% YES
WTI oil price ≥ $88 today - 57% YES
DHS funded before Apr 15 - 9% YES
Macro Signal
|
Recession
35%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
|
Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
|
CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
24%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, every prediction market touching Iran is converging at two physical points. The Strait of Hormuz is the regime's shield, and Kharg Island is its throat. A third variable sits on the other side of the globe. The K...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
|
▲ 6.8%
|
INTC
Intel Corporation
|
$47.07
+$3.01
|
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▲ 6.5%
|
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
|
$218.81
+$13.44
|
|
▲ 2.8%
|
TSLA
Tesla Inc.
|
$393.58
+$10.55
|
Top Losers
|
▼ 0.6%
|
DIS
Walt Disney Company
|
$95.77
-$0.62
|
|
▼ 0.6%
|
HD
The Home Depot
|
$328.93
-$1.98
|
|
▼ 0.6%
|
PG
Procter & Gamble
|
$142.37
-$0.79
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Finance
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
|
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #4 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
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