| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
The US-Iran War
Conflict Outbreak: On Saturday, February 28, the United States and Israel launched a massive, coordinated military campaign against Iran (reportedly codenamed "Operation Epic Fury"). The strikes targeted Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, internal security apparatus, and top leadership.
Death of the Supreme Leader: Iranian state media confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had been in power since 1989, was killed in the initial onslaught alongside dozens of other senior regime officials. Iran has formed an interim leadership council and declared 40 days of mourning.
First US Casualties: The Pentagon confirmed that at least three American service members were killed and others wounded in Kuwait, marking the first US casualties of the conflict.
Global Fallout: The conflict has instantly disrupted the global economy. Saudi Aramco was forced to temporarily shut down its Ras Tanura oil refinery after it was targeted by Iranian drones, causing oil prices to surge. Major airlines worldwide have also canceled or rerouted flights to avoid Middle Eastern airspace
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
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Rate Cuts
2.2
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
45%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
15%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
IRGC Declaration Following Strikes Reshapes Strait of Hormuz Market > Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? · Polymarket · Resolves 12/31/2026 · Volume $4,088,519 > > December 31 49.6% · June 30 47.3% · March 31 39.5% Where the market stands Ev...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 49.0%
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Will Israel strike Beirut by March 31, 2026? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 11.0%
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Will Seattle Seahawks visit White House in 2026? (Yes 78%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 3.0%
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GPT 5.3 released by March 8, 2026? (Yes 68%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 9.0%
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Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? (Yes 87%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 1.0%
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Will the 10 eyar Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? (Yes 91%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 1.8%
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NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
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$180.43
+$3.24
|
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▲ 1.8%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$148.00
+$2.60
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▲ 1.4%
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MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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$398.20
+$5.46
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Top Losers
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▼ 4.8%
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BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway
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$480.84
-$24.11
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▼ 3.1%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$193.96
-$6.25
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▼ 2.7%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$44.38
-$1.23
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.