| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York • London • Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
Wall Street’s most exhausting courtship is officially over: President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, effectively betting that a longtime inflation hawk can learn to coo like a dove on command.
The news triggered an immediate identity crisis in the markets—Gold and Silver tanked (shedding ~5% and ~13% respectively) and Bitcoin slipped toward $81k, as traders panic-sold their hedges fearing Warsh might actually believe in sound money despite his recent pledges to align with the White House.
While Trump praises Warsh as "central casting," the bond market—watching yields creep up—seems to think this casting call might have a few unscripted plot twists left before the transition in May
Macro Signal
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Recession
22%
Moderate
|
Rate Cuts
2.3
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
46%
D-House, R-Senate
|
CPI Forecast
2.7%
Dec 2025
|
AI Bubble Burst
18%
Dec 2026
|
From The Research Desk
The Puzzle Polymarket prices US acquisition of part of Greenland in 2026 at 20%. Kalshi prices US control of any part of Greenland at 46% before January 2029. Kalshi prices Trump taking back the Panama Canal at 35%. Conventional geopolitical analysis...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame →Breaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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▲ 83.0%
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Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of Federal Reserve by January 31? (Yes 100%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 68.0%
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Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair? (Yes 99%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 41.0%
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Will Trump talk to Putin in January? (Yes 46%)
24h Price Movement
|
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▲ 21.0%
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US government funding lapse on January 31? (Yes 98%)
24h Price Movement
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▲ 23.0%
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Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? (Yes 26%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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▲ 2.4%
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TSLA
Tesla Inc.
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$426.73
+$10.17
|
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▲ 0.7%
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ADBE
Adobe Inc.
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$293.64
+$1.99
|
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▲ 0.5%
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DIS
Walt Disney Company
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$112.11
+$0.53
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Top Losers
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▼ 3.3%
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AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
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$243.92
-$8.26
|
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▼ 2.5%
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V
Visa Inc.
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$323.60
-$8.20
|
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▼ 2.0%
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ORCL
Oracle Corporation
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$165.70
-$3.31
|
Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Sports
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
| #1 |
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| #2 |
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| #3 |
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| #4 |
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| #5 |
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In The News
Market of the Day
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With reports surfacing yesterday that Elon Musk is considering merging SpaceX with xAI and potentially even Tesla, ticker $X has surged to the top spot. |
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.