| Vol. 1, No. 42 | New York โข London โข Tokyo | $0.50 |
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Global Intelligence Journal
Good morning!
While you were sleeping, the prediction market whales were busy. Here's what the smart money is betting on, plus today's top bond picks across sports, finance, politics, and tech.
2026
๐ฆ Finance & Markets
Stocks slip as Iran deadline looms. S&P 500 futures pointed about 0.5โ0.7% lower, Dow futures shed roughly 205 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell ~0.6% as President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approached with no deal in sight.
๐ณ๏ธ Politics
Trump sets 8pm ET Iran deadline. The White House gave Iran until Tuesday evening to meet U.S. demands on the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump threatening that "the entire country" could be hit if no agreement is reached.
๐ Geopolitics
Iran war enters Day 38. The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran shows no signs of de-escalation; Trump publicly said he doesn't know whether he is winding the war down or escalating it.
๐ Sports
Michigan wins NCAA men's basketball title. The Wolverines captured their first national championship since 1989, closing out 2026 March Madness.
Masters tips off Thursday. The 2026 Masters runs April 9โ12 at Augusta National, with Scottie Scheffler the betting favorite (~14% on Kalshi) ahead of a deep field.
Will DHS be funded again before May 1, 2026? - 62%
Which party wins the U.S. Senate? โ Republican Party 49.3%
The Masters Tournament Champion โ Scottie Scheffler 14%
Macro Signal
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Recession
33%
Elevated
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Rate Cuts
1
Next 6 Mo
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Midterms
0%
D-House, R-Senate
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CPI Forecast
2.5%
Dec 2025
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AI Bubble Burst
20%
Dec 2026
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From The Research Desk
Executive Summary Position: BUY NO at 39 cents. Fair Value: 50โ58% YES (42โ50 cents for NO). Edge: 3โ11 percentage points toward NO. Key Date: Late June or early July 2026 (end of Supreme Court term). Platform: Kalshi. Volume: $22,357. Th...
Keep Reading on FlowFrame โBreaking Markets
The biggest movers in the last 24 hours. These markets are seeing dramatic price swings.
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โฒ 74.0%
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ChatGPT Outage by April 10? (Yes 99%)
24h Price Movement
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โฒ 54.0%
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Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ยบC and 1.29ยบC in March 2026? (Yes 77%)
24h Price Movement
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โฒ 30.0%
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Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? (Yes 75%)
24h Price Movement
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โผ 29.0%
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Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? (Yes 15%)
24h Price Movement
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โผ 26.0%
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Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? (Yes 22%)
24h Price Movement
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Stock Market Movers
Top gainers and losers from yesterday's trading session.
Top Gainers
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โฒ 3.7%
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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$52.64
+$1.86
|
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โฒ 0.4%
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
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$301.14
+$1.15
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โฒ 0.2%
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CRM
Salesforce Inc.
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$185.43
+$0.40
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Top Losers
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โผ 2.3%
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AAPL
Apple Inc.
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$252.81
-$6.05
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โผ 2.1%
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PFE
Pfizer Inc.
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$27.25
-$0.58
|
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โผ 1.8%
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TSLA
Tesla Inc.
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$346.31
-$6.51
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Today's Top Pick
Our highest-rated opportunity of the day. Each pick is rated AAA-A based on liquidity, probability, and smart money activity.
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Politics
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Emerging Markets
Markets gaining rapid traction with high volume velocity. These unrated markets show accelerating interest.
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Smart Money Activity
When traders put serious money on the line, we pay attention. Significant whale bets from the past 24 hours.
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Not financial advice. Do your own research. Markets can be wrong.