Here's what we've got for you today:

• ️ Powell's final FOMC minutes drop Wednesday — his last words as Fed Chair before Warsh takes over

• An absurdly heavy economic calendar with PMIs, housing data, and Michigan Sentiment

🇨🇳 Markets are still digesting the underwhelming Trump-Xi summit

• Nvidia earnings Wednesday — the single most important AI report of the year

🇮🇷 Iran talks are stalled, oil is at $109, and the strait is still closed

Trump and Xi spent two days in Beijing last week and produced almost nothing. A Boeing order for 200 planes — the only concrete deliverable — was the same deal China promised in 2017 and never fulfilled. No breakthrough on trade, no movement on the Iran war, no resolution on Taiwan. The Atlantic Council called it "a big show with little to show for it," and the prediction markets agree. Now attention shifts to the data calendar, which is genuinely brutal this week — flash PMIs across major economies, housing data from every angle, regional Fed indices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Powell's final FOMC minutes hitting Wednesday afternoon. Throw in Nvidia earnings the same day and you have the kind of week where one bad print can move every market we cover.

The market: Fed rate cut timing markets / Powell successor markets Platform: Kalshi Current odds: September rate cut probability has collapsed Volume: High across Fed-related contracts

Why it matters this week: Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair expires May 23. Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, the FOMC releases minutes from his final meeting at the helm. These are essentially his exit notes, and the market will read them looking for two things: how worried the committee actually is about the Iran oil shock feeding through to core inflation, and whether the doves who were pushing for cuts earlier this year are still pushing now that April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY. Kevin Warsh is expected to take over as Chair imminently, and his views are meaningfully more hawkish than Powell's. The minutes are Powell's last chance to shape the policy narrative before Warsh inherits the chair.

The number to know: 3.8%. That was April CPI year-over-year — the hottest inflation print since early 2024. Powell's committee saw the early signs of this in their meeting; the minutes will show how seriously they took it.

What moves the line: Any hawkish language about inflation persistence pushes rate-cut markets further out and supports the dollar. Any acknowledgment that the labor market is softening — April unemployment ticked up to 4.7% — keeps a 2027 cut on the table.

The market: Nvidia EPS beat/miss markets, AI infrastructure spending markets Platform: Polymarket Current odds: Strong consensus on beating headline EPS Volume: Very high — Nvidia is the most-traded single-stock earnings contract on Polymarket

Why it matters this week: Nvidia reports Wednesday after the bell. This is the cleanest single readout we get on whether the $700 billion in 2026 AI infrastructure spending across hyperscalers is actually translating into chip demand at scale. Last quarter Nvidia put up another blowout, and the stock has been a meaningful chunk of the S&P 500's record-breaking run. The Nasdaq is at all-time highs with market breadth at dotcom-era lows, meaning if Nvidia disappoints — or guides cautiously — the concentrated rally could unwind quickly. Crestwood Advisors noted that the S&P 500 is now trading at 20.9 times forward earnings, well above its 10-year average, with valuations baked in for AI capex continuing through the back half of 2026.

The interesting wrinkle from the Trump-Xi summit: reports that the US approved roughly 10 Chinese tech companies to purchase Nvidia's H200 chips, which would be a meaningful new revenue stream. Whether those sales actually materialize is unclear — Chinese policymakers seem prepared to absorb short-term pain for longer-term independence — but any commentary from Jensen Huang on the call could move the contract significantly.

The number to know: 20.9x. The forward P/E on the S&P 500. Nvidia's results either justify the valuation or expose it.

What moves the line: A beat with strong forward guidance and any positive China commentary supports the broader market rally. A miss or guidance cut sends the Nasdaq lower and likely takes the entire AI complex with it.

The markets: PMI markets, housing starts, consumer sentiment Platform: Kalshi Current odds: Mixed across the calendar Volume: Varies by data point

Why it matters this week: Five days of consequential data releases. Flash PMIs Thursday will show whether private sector growth held up through April's oil shock. Last month's manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside at 54.5 — the strongest reading since May 2022 — driven by stockpiling ahead of energy disruptions. Services PMI recovered to 51.0 from a three-year low. If both readings hold, the resilience story stays intact. If either drops below 50, the soft-landing narrative gets tested.

Housing data drops throughout the week. Starts and permits Monday, NAHB Housing Market Index Monday, and pending home sales Thursday. Housing has been the canary in the coal mine for the broader economy because mortgage rates have stayed elevated and home affordability is at multi-decade lows. A weak housing print combined with hot inflation is the textbook stagflation setup that recession contracts have been pricing more and more aggressively.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment hits Friday. The final reading will tell you whether $4.39 gas has finally cracked consumer confidence or whether Americans are absorbing the energy shock without changing their behavior.

The number to know: 51.7. That's the composite PMI from April. Anything above 50 means expansion. Anything below means contraction. We're 1.7 points away from the line.

What moves the line: A PMI miss combined with a soft housing print and falling sentiment pushes recession contracts above 40% and keeps Powell's successor framing the early policy debate around growth instead of inflation.

The market: Iran ceasefire markets, Strait of Hormuz reopening Platform: Polymarket Current odds: Permanent peace deal markets in the 30% range, Hormuz reopening contracts dying Volume: Heavy across all Iran-related markets

Why it matters this week: The Iran situation has settled into a frustrating equilibrium. Trump declared hostilities "terminated" two weeks ago to satisfy the War Powers Resolution, but the blockade is still active, Iran is still seizing ships and demanding crypto for strait passage, and Brent is at $109. The latest Iranian proposal — reopen the strait first, deal with nuclear later — has been deemed "totally unacceptable" by Trump, who paused his "Project Freedom" naval escort mission after Iran fired on US warships. The two sides are negotiating the duration of an enrichment moratorium, with the US pushing for 20 years and Iran offering 5.

Pakistan continues to mediate. Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Salman are reportedly pushing Trump toward diplomacy rather than military escalation. Trump told PBS there's a "very good chance" of a deal, then added he's "felt that confidence before" — which is the most Trump statement possible. The Iran-related prediction markets have largely repriced lower as the talks have stalled. Watch for any specific announcement of a memorandum of understanding, which could resolve multiple contracts simultaneously.

The number to know: 1,000 pounds. That's the highly enriched uranium Iran would need to export under the deal currently being negotiated. The destination is unclear — Trump wants the US to take it, Iran wants the IAEA to.

What moves the line: Any signed MOU resolves the permanent peace deal market and likely the Hormuz reopening contracts simultaneously. A breakdown in talks — like another Iranian attack on US warships — sends oil markets higher and recession contracts up with them.

OKC Thunder NBA Finals — Polymarket — 60% YES — The Thunder are still the favorite but the Spurs swept the Timberwolves and Wembanyama is the one player who could disrupt the title run.

Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup — Polymarket — 39% YES — Western Conference Finals against Vegas underway. Carolina is the main competition out East at +160 odds.

Trump executive order on prediction markets — watching for any federal action after Wisconsin's lawsuit and the NPR insider trading reporting. Six states now have legal actions pending.