May 11, 2026

Here's what we've got this week:

• April CPI drops Tuesday. Forecasts are calling for 3.7-3.8% year-over-year — the highest in over a year, and the first reading that fully captures the Iran oil shock

-Trump lands in Beijing Thursday for a two-day summit with Xi. First state visit to China by a sitting US president since 2017

-Putin says the war "may be coming to an end" and is open to meeting Zelenskyy. The three-day Victory Day ceasefire ended today.

• ️ The PGA Championship tees off Thursday at Quail Hollow with Scottie Scheffler chasing his second PGA Championship.

• April retail sales drop Thursday. The first read on whether $4.39 gas is killing consumer spending.

This is the rare week where the macro data, the geopolitics, and the global summits all hit on overlapping days. Tuesday's CPI is the inflation reading that determines whether the Fed is stuck on hold through 2027 or has room to maneuver. Thursday is going to be wild, Trump arrives in Beijing for the most important US-China summit since 2017, retail sales drop the same morning, and the PGA Championship's first round tees off in the afternoon. Meanwhile, Putin spent the weekend hinting that the Russia-Ukraine war could be ending. There are markets pricing every one of these threads, and they're going to move at very different speeds.

The market: April CPI YoY / Inflation rate markets Platform: Kalshi Current odds: 99% chance of inflation above 2.3% YoY Volume: High across all CPI markets

Why it matters this week: Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET. Headline CPI is expected at 0.6-0.7% month-over-month and 3.7-3.8% year-over-year. Core CPI is forecast at 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. The headline number is going to be the highest annual inflation print since early 2024, driven almost entirely by the Iran oil shock that started in late February. Bank of America has officially abandoned its rate-cut forecast for 2026 and pushed the first cut all the way to the second half of 2027. JPMorgan's pessimistic scenario has peak inflation breaking 5% if the Hormuz situation deteriorates further.

What makes this print especially loaded is that core CPI hasn't yet fully reflected the oil pass-through. March core was 0.2% MoM, but transportation costs, airline fares, and food prices are all expected to firm up in April. A core CPI print at 0.4% or higher would tell you that energy inflation is starting to bleed into the rest of the economy — exactly the spillover the Fed has been worried about.

The number to know: 3.7%. That's the consensus annual CPI estimate. Anything above 3.9% sends bond yields and rate-cut expectations into a tailspin. Anything below 3.5% gives doves a small window to argue the spike is transitory.

What moves the line: A hot core print (0.4%+) ends the rate-cut conversation entirely and the recession contract on Kalshi crosses 40%. A soft core print (0.2%) keeps a Q4 cut on the table and supports the equity rally.

The market: Will Trump visit China by May 31? / Trade deal markets Platform: Polymarket Current odds: ~95%+ YES on the visit happening Volume: $35K+ on the visit contract, more on related trade markets

Why it matters this week: Trump arrives in Beijing Thursday for a two-day summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15. This is the first state visit to China by a sitting US president since Trump's own visit in November 2017. The trip was originally scheduled for April but got pushed back because of the Iran war. The agenda is enormous — trade stability, rare earth supply chains, AI export controls, Taiwan, Iran, and the structural question of whether the two superpowers can manage their relationship without it deteriorating into open conflict.

CFR's analysis bluntly states that "China will have the upper hand" at this summit. Xi is meeting Trump convinced he's winning. The Strait of Hormuz remains 90% below normal traffic, and Beijing has positioned itself as the country that already weighed in with Iran to reopen it. China benefits enormously from a reopened strait since 45% of its oil flows through it. Trump needs Chinese leverage on Iran. Xi needs continued trade access. The deals that get announced — or don't — will move global markets for weeks.

The number to know: $250 billion. That's the size of business deals announced during Trump's 2017 visit. The 2026 version is likely to be more modest. Anything significantly above $100 billion in announced trade or investment commitments would be read as a major win.

What moves the line: Any joint statement on Iran moves oil markets immediately. Any trade announcement moves the dollar, Chinese ADRs, and rare earth equities. The summit itself ends Friday — most of the prediction market action will be in the 48 hours after the leaders speak.

The market: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 Platform: Polymarket Current odds: ~26% YES (likely repricing after the weekend's developments) Volume: $463K from top traders alone

Why it matters this week: Putin made a striking statement Sunday after Russia's scaled-back Victory Day parade — that the war "may be coming to an end" and that he's open to direct talks with Zelenskyy in Moscow or a neutral country. The three-day ceasefire that Trump brokered last Friday ended today. Both sides exchanged 1,000 prisoners each. Despite some attacks continuing during the ceasefire window, the diplomatic momentum is the strongest it's been since the war started in February 2022.

Trump said the ceasefire could be "the beginning of the end." The Smart Money Report we ran in April highlighted that the top traders on Polymarket had $463K positioned on YES for a ceasefire by end of 2026 — at a market price of 26%. They're betting the diplomatic groundwork is further along than the headlines suggested. Putin's Sunday comments are the first piece of public evidence that they might be right.

The number to know: $463K. That's how much smart money has bet on a year-end ceasefire. The biggest position is from a trader who entered at 41% and has been holding through every market dip. If Putin's comments translate into actual negotiations this week, that position pays.

What moves the line: Any announced direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy moves this contract sharply higher. If the post-Victory Day diplomacy stalls and the war resumes its normal grinding pace, the contract drifts back toward 20% or lower.

The markets: April retail sales (Kalshi) / PGA Championship winner (Kalshi) Platform: Both Current odds: Scheffler ~25-30% to win the PGA / retail sales markets vary

Why it matters this week: Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, April retail sales drop. This is the first read on whether $4.39 gas and the broader cost-of-living squeeze are actually killing consumer spending. Consensus is for 1.2% MoM headline retail sales — strong on paper, but partly inflated by higher gasoline prices at the pump rather than real volume growth. The "control group" number (which strips out gas, autos, and building materials) is the cleaner signal. A control group print at 0.5%+ keeps the soft-landing narrative alive. A miss below 0.2% raises real recession concerns.

Then Thursday afternoon, the PGA Championship tees off at Quail Hollow in Charlotte. Scottie Scheffler is the world No. 1 and the betting favorite.

The number to know: 1.2% MoM. That's the consensus retail sales estimate. Take out gas inflation and the underlying real spending number is closer to 0.5%, which is meaningfully softer than the headline suggests.

What moves the line: Retail sales miss + hot CPI = recession contract spikes above 40%.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May — Polymarket — was 80% three weeks ago, now 23%. The contract is dying as the May 31 deadline approaches with the blockade still active. The $163K NO position from one of the bigger traders is looking very right.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 — Polymarket — 34% YES. The May 31 deadline gives this contract three weeks. Iran's 14-point proposal is still under review. Trump declared hostilities "terminated" but no formal deal has been signed.

Marijuana rescheduling before July — Kalshi — drifting. No procedural movement from the DEA in two weeks. The "imminent" headlines from late April have faded without a hearing date or judge assignment.